Capture the collective wisdom of your target audience to predict in-market success.
Grounded in behavioral science and economics, prediction markets are a highly validated research method used to predict marketing and business outcomes rather than summarize opinion. The Consensus Point approach relies on a proven prediction market algorithm, with a 90% hit rate in identifying trends and consumer behavior. Prediction markets have been shown to identify disruptive or break-through concept potential better than traditional testing. The further out from an event, the more accurate prediction markets become compared to "claimed" future behavior.
Discover the trends, ideas, products and services that will create the most impact.
Determine high potential ideas, identify winning concepts, predict new product successes or source of volume.
Evaluate the effectiveness of your advertising, messaging, claims, and positioning, to make sure your comms will drive consumer action.
Check if your pack design motivates purchase and identify opportunities for optimization.
- Prediction Likelihood Index (PLI) summary
- Spread Analysis
Prediction metrics are different from scalar survey measures. In a prediction market, as participants invest tokens in outcomes, the "score" of the outcome changes in real-time, with the sum of the scores in each question equal to 100%. In Huunu, scores equate to probabilities of outcomes.
The Consensus Point research platform yields the following predictive metrics:
- Prediction Likelihood Index is an overall summary prediction score that is calculated as a result of two metrics: Preference Prediction Score and Strength Meter.
- Preference Prediction is the proportion of participants betting for and against each outcome or answer choice
- Strength Meter summarizes the "intensity" of the positive and negative betting activity on each outcome or answer choice.
- Qualitative Guidance in the form of word clouds, providing detailed rationale on positive and negative predictions.
Prediction Likelihood Index (PLI) summary
PLI is the collective judgement of a crowd, predicting the likely outcome of a business question. By comparing a PLI score against our validated database of norms, we are able to accurately predict how likely each prediction is to occur.
Predict your concepts' overall potential with our unique spread analysis of actual betting behavior. Participants bet with emotion and confidence to help you uncover opportunities and barriers that survey scales often miss. On top of that, your breakthrough and niche innovation ideas will actually have a fair shot to get to the next level of development!
Consumers & Markets
- Purchase Intent
- Improve Lives
- Category Growth
- Jobs To Be Done
- Purchase / Usage / Trial
- Reasons to Believe
- Solves a Problem
- Source of Volume
- Purchase Motivation
- Usage Motivation
- Trial Intent
- Brand Fit
- Stands Out on the Shelf
- Easy to Understand
- Purchase Intent
- Purchase Frequency